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桑之未 | 前十月豪华车销量增长9.6%,10月豪华车价格转好折扣回升0.5%

2019年11月23日 07:39:01
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来源:桑之未

撰稿人 / 桑之未

汽车流通行业分析师 | 中国汽车流通协会专家委员会成员

这是2019年第10篇豪华车市场分析报告,往期报告可通过公众号底部菜单「月度报告」获取,感谢您的关注!

10月,社会零售总额中汽车类为3228亿,同比下滑33%,环比下滑5%; 其中笔者调研的豪华车零售总额为938亿,同比下滑27%,环比下滑139%; 占比291%; 10月因国庆假期有效销售日期减少,销量与收入都有所下降。

10月豪华车市场销量环比下滑15.5%

1-10月国内乘用车经销商零售累计销量为1781.4万辆,同比下滑3.1%;其中10月乘用车经销商零售累计销量173.8万辆,同比下滑3.8%;1-10月20个豪华品牌经销商零售销量为254.7万辆,同比增长9.6%;其中10月豪华品牌经销商零售销量24万辆,与去年持平,同比仅增长0.2%,环比下滑15.5%。今年国庆70周年大庆,假期促销活动有所限制,假日出游人数较多,对零售市场产生一定的影响,这部分消费将会延续到后两个月。

10月豪华SUV市场销量同比增长11.9%,轿车下滑5.1%

10月,豪华车零售市场销量与去年持平,但是特点比较鲜明,豪华SUV市场销量增长11.9%,其中中型豪华车SUV市场同比增长32%,占整体豪华车市场销量的21.8%,主要是由于去年同期X3、Q5L全新改款销量爬坡期间销量基数低,GLC加长改款没有完全释放销量,今年这三款车型均已成为各家销量与利润的保证。

10月,中大型SUV销量同比下滑19.2%,这一细分市场GLE、X5全新换代,销量逐渐在释放,Q7改款预计要到明年上市,所以这个市场供应有问题;另一方面,供应减少后,中大型SUV零售价格比较坚挺,为车企与经销商提供较多的利润。

10月,中型轿车细分市场下滑10.4%,受全新宝马3系销量爬升影响,预计年末会恢复以往销量水平。 10月紧凑级豪华车市场销量有所下滑,这部分市场以二三线、年轻用户群体为主,这部分消费群体在假期时更愿意旅游而不是去购车,另外9月毕业季,即将上班前是购车高峰期。

10月经销商库存维持拉低,零售折扣回升0.5%,经销商返利增加0.35%

10月作为第四季度开始的首月,加上国庆长假期,市场前两周销售节奏较慢,10月客流环比仅增长0.3%;车企批售量相对合理,经销商库存压力不大,与上月持平;其中奔驰经销商库存维持在1.2左右,与上个月比较微降,宝马奥迪经销商库存维持在1.5左右,与上个月比较微升0.2个点;凯迪拉客经销商库存最高,达到2.1,环比上升0.4个点;林肯经销商库存环比有所下降。

10月,豪华车经销商新车销售折扣较上月回升0.5%,有利于经销商利润回升,其中奔驰奥迪价格折扣均有回升,宝马折扣回升加大至1个多点,主要是5系价格开始回收,新款X5、X7销售没有折扣,对价格起到稳定作用,新3系虽然折扣下跌较快,但是折扣率低于品牌平均值,与去年同期相比宝马品牌折扣收回3个多点,经销商利润也恢复为正,有1个多点的利润。

二线豪华品牌中,凯迪拉克近期折扣维持在20%左右,自6月份清国五车型后,价格有所好转。本月沃尔沃折扣最高,较上月折扣下滑0.9%,接近25个点,加之经销商库存较高压力较大,需要注意风险。

10月车企对经销商返利支持较上月增加0.35%,林肯对经销商支持的力度最大,凯迪拉克也增加了对经销商返利支持,相较9月增加1.2个点; 奥迪增加了模糊返利对经销商进行支持,宝马对5系、X3增加2个点的返利,奔驰的部分车型返点支持力度增加; 英菲尼迪沃尔沃对经销商的返利支持,较上月增加0.4个点左右。 车企在10月增加对经销商的返利支持,有助于恢复经销商信心,增加经销商利润,为顺利完成全年销售任务打下基础。

10月豪华车市占率为13.8%,较上月下降1.9个点

10月,豪华车市占率为13.8%,较上月下降1.9个点;因国庆假期中心区域市场豪华车销量下跌较大所致。10月奔驰市场份额较上月增加1.4个点,市场占有率为24.1%;奥迪市场份额较上月增加0.7个点,市场占有率为24.7%,排名第一;宝马市场占有率为22.4%;雷克萨斯市占率上升0.5个点,为6.6%,其他品牌变化不大。

10月受假期影响十城市豪华车销量环比下滑18.3%

10月十城市乘用车销量为41.7万辆,环比下滑9.3%,豪华车销量下滑较大,环比下滑18.3%为8.4万辆,主要是假日因素影响,前两周客流与销量均下滑较大。(笔者选取国内十个主要区域中心城市对零售市场进行观察,涵盖东区、西部,一线二线、三线市场;10城市分别是北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都、重庆、郑州、苏州、杭州、西安)

今年10月豪华车市场有个有趣的巧合,国庆旅游最热门的11个城市,豪华车销量也跌幅居前。 如果从单人消费金额这个角度看,与豪华汽车跌幅相似度较高,成都是国庆旅游单人消费金额最高的城市,人均消费1417元,这个月成都豪华汽车零售环比下跌34.5%; 北京人均消费1206元,豪华车环比下跌20.9%; 上海人均1108元,销量环比下跌17.2%。

综述:去年10月汽车销量连续下滑,引发救市的讨论,笔者在去年10月文章中提到,促进汽车销量增长,从促进汽车消费着手,“应该从梳理阻碍汽车消费、流通的政策入手,解除部分城市限牌、限号等”,今年部分城市已经解除限购或者增加牌照资源;如果进一步促进汽车消费,需要从二手车方面考量,应该在“二手车出口、解除限迁、二手车税费改革、临时虚拟牌照等方面进行调整”,为消费者置换新车提供便利条件,从而促进新车销售。

链接 前十月美国豪华车市场按年下滑0.8%

1-10月,美国10个品牌豪华车销量为141万辆,年下滑0.8%,其中10月销量为14.8万辆,同比增长5.5%。10月奥迪保时捷沃尔沃增长超过10%,奔驰宝马销量增长超过9%。

奔驰(含Smart)

10月,奔驰官方销量为57761辆,同比增长12%,1-10月累计销量为591002辆,同比增长5%;10月经销商销量为5.8万辆,同比增长9.2%,1-10月累计经销商销量为61.7万辆,同比增长4.6%。

10月,奔驰品牌新车均价维持在44.6万元左右; 新车折扣较上月回升0.4个点,截止10月份经销商库存深度在1.2左右。

10月,奔驰C级零售1.3万辆增长25.5%,E级1.3万辆增长12.7%,GLC为1.2万辆增长28.4%,奔驰A三厢零售近5000辆。10月份,奔驰此前召回的E级车陆续开始回店维修,E级的召回对E级车的零售没有产生太多影响,但售后配件准备时间较长,对4S店的后续工作有一定影响。

宝马(含MINI

10月,宝马官方销量为61400辆,同比增长8.8%,1-10月累计销量为587417辆,同比增长13.8%;10月经销商销量为5.6万辆,和上月基本持平,1-10月累计经销商销量为60.4万辆,同比增长15.9%。

10月, 宝马品牌新车均价维持在41万元左右,较上月上涨0.89万;新车折扣回升1.3个点;截止10月份经销商库存深度在1.5左右。

10月, 新3系经销商零售为0.84万辆,X1经销商零售0.58万辆,两款新车均处在销量上升期,预计年末会达到万辆规模; X3销量环比下滑18.9%,宝马部分车型产生库存,需要经销商注意个别车型销售进度。

10月,宝马“领创展厅”陆续完成改造开业,“BMW网络领创项目”启动于2018年,2019年开始在各地推出,展厅增加数字化能力和大数据的使用,给用户带来沉浸式互动体验,部分展厅设有“灯塔项目展区”即宝马大型豪华车展区,目前仅在少部分地区授权。

奥迪

10月,奥迪官方销量为60088辆,同比增长6.4%,1-10月累计销量为550233辆,同比增长2.3%;10月经销商销量为5.9万辆,基本与上月持平,1-10月累计经销商销量为55.2万辆,同比增长4%。

10月, 奥迪品牌新车均价维持在29.3万元左右,较上月下滑0.6万; 新车折扣环比回升0.4个点,截止10月份经销商库存深度在1.5左右。

10月,奥迪A4L、A6L、Q5L三款主力车型经销商零售保持在1.3-1.4万辆之间, A3零售0.67万辆,Q3零售0.54万辆,两款主力小车销量还需要进一步提升,今年上市的奥迪Q2L销量维持在0.37万辆。10月奥迪提供了模糊返利奖励,促进了销量的提升。

凯迪拉克

10月,凯迪拉克经销商销量为1.3万辆,1-10月累计经销商销量为18万辆,同比增长7.1%。

10月, 凯迪拉克品牌新车均价维持在30万元左右; 新车折扣接近20个点; 截止10月份经销商库存深度在2.1,较上月增加0.4,说明厂家恢复对经销商压库; 10月经销商客流环比下滑0.2%,经销商需要注意库存风险。

雷克萨斯

10月,雷克萨斯官方销量为16324辆,同比增长11.2%,1-10月累计销量为160914辆,同比增长21.5%;10月经销商销量为1.6万辆,基本与上月持平,1-10月累计经销商销量为16.4万辆,同比增长24%。

10月,雷克萨斯品牌新车均价在43.9万元左右,较上月上升0.9万元; 10月经销商库存为0.4,经销商利润较好库存压力较小。

捷豹路虎

10月,据捷豹路虎中国官方销量数据显示,10月销量同比增长16.2%,连续四个月实现双位数增长,第三季度中国市场销量增幅24.3%。

2019年初,捷豹路虎针对中国市场现状,确定提高经销商盈利能力,强化、清晰化品牌建设,提升产品力,透明化管理、开源等五大重点工作,通过“稳定局面,恢复信心,逐步提升”三步走战略,目前看已初见成效。

沃尔沃

10月,沃尔沃经销商销量为1.3万辆,同比增长24.6%,1-10月累计经销商销量为12.4万辆,同比增长22.1%。

10月,沃尔沃新车均价维持在33.5万元左右, 新车折扣接近25个点左右,折扣较上月下滑0.8个点; 截止10月份经销商库存深度在1.7,较上月下降0.6个点,在过去的一个月,沃尔沃已经开始清理经销商库存,以缓解经销商资金压力。

保时捷

10月,保时捷经销商销量为0.69万辆,同比增长4.4%,1-10月累计经销商销量为7,3万辆,同比增长21.8%。

保时捷经销商销售压力大的车型为Macan,10月Macan增长133%,前十月累计销量2.86万辆增长34.6%。

林肯

10月,林肯经销商销量为0.35万辆。

10月林肯加大对经销商返利支持力度,这对经销商新车销售保持正利润提供支持。 林肯紧凑型SUV MKC前十月销量下滑36%,这款产品也面临国产换代,预计国产后销量有望提升。 飞行家上市后将会拓展林肯在中大型SUV市场的份额。

英菲尼迪

10月,英菲尼迪经销商销量为0.35万辆,同比下滑13.2%,1-10月累计经销商销量为3.5万辆,同比增长1.2%。

玛莎拉蒂

10月,玛莎拉蒂经销商销量为390辆,同比下滑54.5%。

讴歌

10月,讴歌经销商销量为1580辆,同比增长62%。

链接:

10月,劳斯莱斯销量为79辆。

10月,宾利销量为160辆。

10月,兰博基尼销量为19辆。

10月,阿斯顿马丁销量为30辆。

10月,特斯拉销量661辆。

10月,蔚来销量为2399辆。

版权声明: 本文系@桑之未 #原创首发# 转载或改编请与本人沟通,如有任何侵权行为,侵权者将承担相应的法律责任。2019-11-21

【往期精选内容】

★ 豪华车月度报告:

★ 高层领导专访:

★ 行业热点分析:

Sang Zhiwei: Sales of luxury car increased by 9.6% YTD with discount rate down by 0.5%

Written by / Sang Zhiwei

Insight into the Chinese Luxury Car Market

Report | Data | Consulting

Keywords: Luxury car market, Sales volume of dealer, Market share,Average selling price,Discountrate

This is the 10th luxury car market analysis report in 2019. The previous report can be obtained through the bottom menu "Monthly Report", thank you for your support!

In October, the total retail sales of automobiles was 322.8 billion, down 3.3% YoY and 5% MoM. The total retail sales of luxury segment was 93.8 billion, down 2.7% YoY and 13.9% MoM which accounted for 29.1% of the total share. National Day holiday in the beginning of October led to lack of effective sales days which affected both sales and revenues.

Luxury car market sales in October fell 15.5% MoM

The cumulative dealer sales of passenger car was 17.814 million YTD, down 3.1% YoY. Among them, dealer sales in October contributed for 1.738 million, down 3.8% YoY.The dealer retail sales of 20 luxury brands was 2.547 million YTD, up 9.6% YoY. Among them, dealer sales in October contributed for 240,000, up 0.2% YoY, down 15.5% MoM. This year, China celebrated its 70th birthday which affected sales promotion activities before and during the holiday period. The consumption will move to the following two month.

In October, sales of luxury SUV segment increased by 11.9% YoY, and sales of luxury car segment fell by 5.1%

In October, the sales volume of luxury car retail market was the same as last year. However, they still had several differences in subsegments. The sales volume of the luxury SUV market increased by 11.9%. The mid-sized luxury SUV market grew by 32% YoY, accounting for 21.8% of the overall luxury car sales. The reason was mainly during the same period last year, X3 and Q5L faced facelifted period and sales was low during the climb. And GLC long-wheel version had not completely released sales volume. These three models have become the guarantee of sales and profits for each OEM。

In October, sales of medium and large-sized SUVs fell by 19.2% YoY. GLE and X5 facelifted with sales gradually released. and Q7 was expected to be facelifted next year. Therefore, there was a problem in this market supply. On the other hand, the lack of supply resulted in a solid retail price of medium and large SUVs which provided more profits for both OEMs and dealers.

In October, the mid-sized car segment fell 10.4%, which was affected by the sales growth of the new BMW 3 Series. It is expected to resume its previous sales level at the end of the year. In October, the sales volume of the compact luxury car market declined. This segment is dominated by second- and third-tier city consumers and young consumers. This part of consumer group is more willing to travel during the holidays than to visit a dealer store. In addition, the September graduation season is their peak car purchasing period.

Dealer inventory remained at low level with discount rate down by 0.5% and rebate up by 0.35%

In October, as the first month of Q4 and the National Day holiday, the sales pace in the first two weeks of the market was slow. The showroom traffic in October increased by only 0.3%. The inventory pressure of dealers was not large same as last month. Mercedes-Benz dealer inventory remained at around 1.2, slightly lowered compared with last month, BMW and Audi dealer inventory remained at around 1.5, slight increased by 0.2 compared with last month. Cadillac dealer inventory reaching a peak of 2.1, rose by 0.4 from the previous month. Lincoln dealers" inventory decreased.

In October, dealers" new car sales discount decreased by 0.5% from the previous month, which is conducive to the recovery of dealers" profits. Mercedes-Benz and Audi have rebounded. BMW"s discount has decreased to more than 1%, mainly due to the 5-series price recovery. The new X5 and X7 had no discount, which stabilized the brand price. Although the discount of the new 3 series fell faster, the discount rate was lower than the brand average. Compared with the same period of last year, the BMW brand discount recovered more than 3%. The dealer profit has also returned to positive, with a profit of more than 1%.

Among the second-tier luxury brands, brand discount of Cadillac remained at around 19%. Since the clearance of inventory with National V emission standard, the price has improved. This month, Volvo has the highest discount, which is 0.9% lower than last month"s discount, close to 25%, dealers are under greater pressure and need to pay attention to the risks.

In October, OEMs increased their support for dealer rebates by 0.35%, and Lincoln had the strongest support for dealers. Cadillac also increased support for dealer rebates with an increase of 1.2% compared with September. Audi added fuzzy rebates to dealers. BMW added 2% to the 5 Series and X3 rebates. Some of Mercedes-Benz"s rebate support increased. Infiniti and Volvo"s rebate support for dealers increased by 0.4%. In October, OEMs increased their rebate support for dealers, which helped restore dealer confidence and increase dealer profit, laying the foundation for the successful completion of the annual sales task.

The market share of luxury cars in October was 13.8%, down 1.9% from the previous month

In October, the luxury car market accounted for 13.8%, down 1.9% from the previous month. During National Day holiday, the sales of luxury cars in first-tier cities fell significantly. In October, Mercedes-Benz"s market share increased by 1.4% to 24.2%. Audi"s market share increased by 0.7% to 24.7%, ranking first. BMW"s market share was 22.4%. Lexus’ market share increased by 0.5% to 6.6%. Other brands did not change much.

Top-10 city sales fell by 18.3% MoM impacted by National Day holiday

In October, the sales volume of passenger cars in top 10 cities was 417,000, down 9.3% from the previous month. However, the sales volume of luxury cars fell sharply, down 18.3% from the previous month to 84,000. This was mainly due to the holiday factors. The showroom traffic and sales fell significantly in the first two weeks. (Top 10 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Xi"an)

There was an interesting coincidence in the luxury car market in October this year, In the top 11 cities with the most popular National Day tourism, luxury car sales also led the declination. In terms of the amount of single-person consumption, it has quite similarity with the decline of luxury cars. Chengdu is the city with the highest single-person consumption of National Day tourism. The per capita consumption was 1,417 yuan. This month, Chengdu luxury car retail sales fell by 34.5%. Beijing per capita consumption was 1,206 yuan, luxury cars fell by 20.9%. Shanghai per capita was 1,108 yuan, sales fell by 17.2%.

To sum up, in October last year, car sales continued to decline, triggering discussions on bailouts. The author mentioned in the article last October that promoting car sales growth and starting from promoting car consumption, "it should start with a policy that could dredge hinders of car consumption. Release license plate and road restrictions on certain cities, etc.” This year some cities have lifted restrictions or increased license plate resources. If it needed further promotion of automobile consumption, it is necessary to consider used cars. It should be in the "second-hand car exports, lift restrictions, used car tax adjustments such as fee reform and temporary virtual licenses.” These actions will provide convenience for consumers to replace new cars, thereby promoting new car sales.

Links: US luxury car market fell 0.8% year-on-year in the first ten months

The sales volume of 10 luxury cars in the United States was 1.41 million YTD, down 0.8% YoY, of which the sales volume in October was 148,000 with an increase of 5.5%. In October, Audi, Porsche and Volvo increased by more than 10% while Mercedes-Benz and BMW sales increased by more than 9%.

Mercedes(Including Smart):

In October, the average price of Mercedes-Benz brand new cars remained at around 446,000 yuan. The discount rebounded by 0.4%. And the inventory depth of dealers was around 1.2 in October.

In October, the dealer retail volume of MB (Smart included) was 58,000, up 9.2% YoY. Among them, Mercedes-Benz C-class retailed 13,000 with an increase of 25.5%. E-class retailed 13,000 with an increase of 12.7%. GLC retailed 12,000 with an increase of 28.4%. The Mercedes-Benz A-class sedan retails nearly 5,000. In October, Mercedes-Benz"s previously recalled E-class cars began to return to stores for maintenance. The E-class recall did not have much impact on the retail of E-class sales, but the after-sales parts were expected for long time delivery which had a certain impact on the follow-up work of dealers.

BMW(Including MINI):

In October, the average price of BMW brand new cars remained at around 410,000 yuan, up 8,900 yuan from the previous month. The discount rebounded by 1.3%. The inventory depth of dealers was around 1.5.

In October, the dealer retail volume of BMW was 56,000, with a YoY increase of 0.4%. Among them, the new 3 series retailed 8,400, and X1 retailed 5,800. Both new cars were in the period of sales climbing. It is expected to reach 10,000 at year-end. X3 sales fell by 18.9% from the previous month. Some models of BMW generate inventory, and dealers need to pay attention to the sales progress of some models.

In October, BMW “Leading Exhibition Hall” was completed and rebuilt. “BMW Network Leading Project” was launched in 2018. It was launched in various places in 2019. The exhibition hall increased the digital ability and the use of big data, bringing immersive interaction to users. Some of the exhibition halls have a "lighthouse project exhibition area" that is BMW large luxury car exhibition area, currently only authorized in a small number of areas.

Audi:

In October, the average price of Audi brand new cars remained at around 293,000 yuan, down 6,000 from the previous month. The discount rebounded by 0.4%. The dealer inventory depth was around 1.5 in October.

In October, the retail sales of Audi A4L, A6L and Q5L remained at 13,000-14,000. A3 retailed 6,700. Q3 retailed 5,400. The sales of these two main cars needed to be further improved. Audi Q2L sales remained at 3,700. In October, Audi provided a fuzzy rebate incentive to promote sales.

Cadillac:

In October, the average price of Cadillac brand new cars remained at around 300,000 yuan. The discount was close to 20%. The depth of dealer inventory in October was 2.1 with an increase of 0.4 from the previous month which indicated that OEM resumed the pressure on dealers. The showroom traffic decreased by 0.2%. Dealers need to pay attention to inventory risks.

Lexus:

In October, the average price of Lexus brand new cars was about 439,000 yuan, up by 9,000 yuan from the previous month. The dealer inventory was 0.4. The dealers had better profits and the inventory pressure was small.

Jaguar Land Rover:

In October, according to Jaguar Land Rover China official sales data, sales increased by 16.2% YoY, achieving double-digit growth for four consecutive months. In Q3, sales in China increased by 24.3%.

At the beginning of 2019, Jaguar Land Rover identified five key tasks, such as improving the profitability of dealers, strengthening brand building, enhancing product strength, transparent management, and open source, in response to the current situation in the Chinese market. Through three steps of “stabilizing the situation, restoring confidence, and gradually improving” strategy, it is beginning to see results.

Volvo:

In October, the average price of Volvo brand new cars remained at around 335,000 yuan. The discount was close to 25%. The discount fell by 0.8% from the previous month.

Inventory depth of dealers was 1.7 with a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month. Volvo has begun to clear dealer inventory to ensure that the pressure on dealer funds is eased.

Porsche:

In October, Porsche dealer retail sales were 6,900, up 4.4% YoY and 73,000 YTD, UP 21.8% YoY.

The inventory pressure model of Porsche dealers was Macan. In October, Macan sales grew by 133% to achieve a 28,600 total sales YTD with an increase of 34.6%.

Lincoln:

In October, the retail sales of Lincoln was 3,500.

Lincoln increased its support for dealer rebates which provided support for dealers" new car sales profits. Lincoln"s compact SUV MKC sales fell 36% YTD. This product is also facing replacement of domestically produced. It is expected that sales would increase after domestically produced. After the launch of the new Aviator, it expands Lincoln"s market share in the medium and large SUV segment.

Infiniti:

In October, the dealer retail sales of Infiniti was 3,500, down 13.2% YoY.

Maserati

In October, Maserati dealers sold 390 units, down 54.5% YoY.

Acura:

In October, the dealer retail sales of Acura was 1,580 with an increase of 62% YoY.

link:

In October, Rolls-Royce sold 79 units.

In October, Bentley sold 160 units.

In October, Lamborghini sold 19 units.

In October, Aston Martin sold 30 units.

In October, Tesla sold 661 units.

In October, NIO sold 2,399 units.

copyright statement : This article is anoriginal article published by Sang Zhiwei for the first time. For reproduction or adapting, please communicate with the author. In case of any infringement, the infringer will bear the corresponding legal responsibilities. Nov. 21th, 2019, Beijing.

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