撰稿人 / 桑之未
汽车流通行业分析师 | 中国汽车流通协会专家委员会成员
10月，社会零售总额中汽车类为3228亿，同比下滑33%，环比下滑5%； 其中笔者调研的豪华车零售总额为938亿，同比下滑27%，环比下滑139%； 占比291%； 10月因国庆假期有效销售日期减少，销量与收入都有所下降。
10月车企对经销商返利支持较上月增加0.35%，林肯对经销商支持的力度最大，凯迪拉克也增加了对经销商返利支持，相较9月增加1.2个点； 奥迪增加了模糊返利对经销商进行支持，宝马对5系、X3增加2个点的返利，奔驰的部分车型返点支持力度增加； 英菲尼迪与沃尔沃对经销商的返利支持，较上月增加0.4个点左右。 车企在10月增加对经销商的返利支持，有助于恢复经销商信心，增加经销商利润，为顺利完成全年销售任务打下基础。
今年10月豪华车市场有个有趣的巧合，国庆旅游最热门的11个城市，豪华车销量也跌幅居前。 如果从单人消费金额这个角度看，与豪华汽车跌幅相似度较高，成都是国庆旅游单人消费金额最高的城市，人均消费1417元，这个月成都豪华汽车零售环比下跌34.5%； 北京人均消费1206元，豪华车环比下跌20.9%； 上海人均1108元，销量环比下跌17.2%。
10月， 新3系经销商零售为0.84万辆，X1经销商零售0.58万辆，两款新车均处在销量上升期，预计年末会达到万辆规模； X3销量环比下滑18.9%，宝马部分车型产生库存，需要经销商注意个别车型销售进度。
10月， 奥迪品牌新车均价维持在29.3万元左右，较上月下滑0.6万； 新车折扣环比回升0.4个点，截止10月份经销商库存深度在1.5左右。
10月， 凯迪拉克品牌新车均价维持在30万元左右； 新车折扣接近20个点； 截止10月份经销商库存深度在2.1，较上月增加0.4，说明厂家恢复对经销商压库； 10月经销商客流环比下滑0.2%，经销商需要注意库存风险。
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Sang Zhiwei: Sales of luxury car increased by 9.6% YTD with discount rate down by 0.5%
Written by / Sang Zhiwei
Insight into the Chinese Luxury Car Market
Report | Data | Consulting
Keywords: Luxury car market, Sales volume of dealer, Market share,Average selling price，Discountrate
This is the 10th luxury car market analysis report in 2019. The previous report can be obtained through the bottom menu "Monthly Report", thank you for your support!
In October, the total retail sales of automobiles was 322.8 billion, down 3.3% YoY and 5% MoM. The total retail sales of luxury segment was 93.8 billion, down 2.7% YoY and 13.9% MoM which accounted for 29.1% of the total share. National Day holiday in the beginning of October led to lack of effective sales days which affected both sales and revenues.
Luxury car market sales in October fell 15.5% MoM
The cumulative dealer sales of passenger car was 17.814 million YTD, down 3.1% YoY. Among them, dealer sales in October contributed for 1.738 million, down 3.8% YoY.The dealer retail sales of 20 luxury brands was 2.547 million YTD, up 9.6% YoY. Among them, dealer sales in October contributed for 240,000, up 0.2% YoY, down 15.5% MoM. This year, China celebrated its 70th birthday which affected sales promotion activities before and during the holiday period. The consumption will move to the following two month.
In October, sales of luxury SUV segment increased by 11.9% YoY, and sales of luxury car segment fell by 5.1%
In October, the sales volume of luxury car retail market was the same as last year. However, they still had several differences in subsegments. The sales volume of the luxury SUV market increased by 11.9%. The mid-sized luxury SUV market grew by 32% YoY, accounting for 21.8% of the overall luxury car sales. The reason was mainly during the same period last year, X3 and Q5L faced facelifted period and sales was low during the climb. And GLC long-wheel version had not completely released sales volume. These three models have become the guarantee of sales and profits for each OEM。
In October, sales of medium and large-sized SUVs fell by 19.2% YoY. GLE and X5 facelifted with sales gradually released. and Q7 was expected to be facelifted next year. Therefore, there was a problem in this market supply. On the other hand, the lack of supply resulted in a solid retail price of medium and large SUVs which provided more profits for both OEMs and dealers.
In October, the mid-sized car segment fell 10.4%, which was affected by the sales growth of the new BMW 3 Series. It is expected to resume its previous sales level at the end of the year. In October, the sales volume of the compact luxury car market declined. This segment is dominated by second- and third-tier city consumers and young consumers. This part of consumer group is more willing to travel during the holidays than to visit a dealer store. In addition, the September graduation season is their peak car purchasing period.
Dealer inventory remained at low level with discount rate down by 0.5% and rebate up by 0.35%
In October, as the first month of Q4 and the National Day holiday, the sales pace in the first two weeks of the market was slow. The showroom traffic in October increased by only 0.3%. The inventory pressure of dealers was not large same as last month. Mercedes-Benz dealer inventory remained at around 1.2, slightly lowered compared with last month, BMW and Audi dealer inventory remained at around 1.5, slight increased by 0.2 compared with last month. Cadillac dealer inventory reaching a peak of 2.1, rose by 0.4 from the previous month. Lincoln dealers" inventory decreased.
In October, dealers" new car sales discount decreased by 0.5% from the previous month, which is conducive to the recovery of dealers" profits. Mercedes-Benz and Audi have rebounded. BMW"s discount has decreased to more than 1%, mainly due to the 5-series price recovery. The new X5 and X7 had no discount, which stabilized the brand price. Although the discount of the new 3 series fell faster, the discount rate was lower than the brand average. Compared with the same period of last year, the BMW brand discount recovered more than 3%. The dealer profit has also returned to positive, with a profit of more than 1%.
Among the second-tier luxury brands, brand discount of Cadillac remained at around 19%. Since the clearance of inventory with National V emission standard, the price has improved. This month, Volvo has the highest discount, which is 0.9% lower than last month"s discount, close to 25%, dealers are under greater pressure and need to pay attention to the risks.
In October, OEMs increased their support for dealer rebates by 0.35%, and Lincoln had the strongest support for dealers. Cadillac also increased support for dealer rebates with an increase of 1.2% compared with September. Audi added fuzzy rebates to dealers. BMW added 2% to the 5 Series and X3 rebates. Some of Mercedes-Benz"s rebate support increased. Infiniti and Volvo"s rebate support for dealers increased by 0.4%. In October, OEMs increased their rebate support for dealers, which helped restore dealer confidence and increase dealer profit, laying the foundation for the successful completion of the annual sales task.
The market share of luxury cars in October was 13.8%, down 1.9% from the previous month
In October, the luxury car market accounted for 13.8%, down 1.9% from the previous month. During National Day holiday, the sales of luxury cars in first-tier cities fell significantly. In October, Mercedes-Benz"s market share increased by 1.4% to 24.2%. Audi"s market share increased by 0.7% to 24.7%, ranking first. BMW"s market share was 22.4%. Lexus’ market share increased by 0.5% to 6.6%. Other brands did not change much.
Top-10 city sales fell by 18.3% MoM impacted by National Day holiday
In October, the sales volume of passenger cars in top 10 cities was 417,000, down 9.3% from the previous month. However, the sales volume of luxury cars fell sharply, down 18.3% from the previous month to 84,000. This was mainly due to the holiday factors. The showroom traffic and sales fell significantly in the first two weeks. (Top 10 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Zhengzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Xi"an)
There was an interesting coincidence in the luxury car market in October this year, In the top 11 cities with the most popular National Day tourism, luxury car sales also led the declination. In terms of the amount of single-person consumption, it has quite similarity with the decline of luxury cars. Chengdu is the city with the highest single-person consumption of National Day tourism. The per capita consumption was 1,417 yuan. This month, Chengdu luxury car retail sales fell by 34.5%. Beijing per capita consumption was 1,206 yuan, luxury cars fell by 20.9%. Shanghai per capita was 1,108 yuan, sales fell by 17.2%.
To sum up, in October last year, car sales continued to decline, triggering discussions on bailouts. The author mentioned in the article last October that promoting car sales growth and starting from promoting car consumption, "it should start with a policy that could dredge hinders of car consumption. Release license plate and road restrictions on certain cities, etc.” This year some cities have lifted restrictions or increased license plate resources. If it needed further promotion of automobile consumption, it is necessary to consider used cars. It should be in the "second-hand car exports, lift restrictions, used car tax adjustments such as fee reform and temporary virtual licenses.” These actions will provide convenience for consumers to replace new cars, thereby promoting new car sales.
Links: US luxury car market fell 0.8% year-on-year in the first ten months
The sales volume of 10 luxury cars in the United States was 1.41 million YTD, down 0.8% YoY, of which the sales volume in October was 148,000 with an increase of 5.5%. In October, Audi, Porsche and Volvo increased by more than 10% while Mercedes-Benz and BMW sales increased by more than 9%.
In October, the average price of Mercedes-Benz brand new cars remained at around 446,000 yuan. The discount rebounded by 0.4%. And the inventory depth of dealers was around 1.2 in October.
In October, the dealer retail volume of MB (Smart included) was 58,000, up 9.2% YoY. Among them, Mercedes-Benz C-class retailed 13,000 with an increase of 25.5%. E-class retailed 13,000 with an increase of 12.7%. GLC retailed 12,000 with an increase of 28.4%. The Mercedes-Benz A-class sedan retails nearly 5,000. In October, Mercedes-Benz"s previously recalled E-class cars began to return to stores for maintenance. The E-class recall did not have much impact on the retail of E-class sales, but the after-sales parts were expected for long time delivery which had a certain impact on the follow-up work of dealers.
In October, the average price of BMW brand new cars remained at around 410,000 yuan, up 8,900 yuan from the previous month. The discount rebounded by 1.3%. The inventory depth of dealers was around 1.5.
In October, the dealer retail volume of BMW was 56,000, with a YoY increase of 0.4%. Among them, the new 3 series retailed 8,400, and X1 retailed 5,800. Both new cars were in the period of sales climbing. It is expected to reach 10,000 at year-end. X3 sales fell by 18.9% from the previous month. Some models of BMW generate inventory, and dealers need to pay attention to the sales progress of some models.
In October, BMW “Leading Exhibition Hall” was completed and rebuilt. “BMW Network Leading Project” was launched in 2018. It was launched in various places in 2019. The exhibition hall increased the digital ability and the use of big data, bringing immersive interaction to users. Some of the exhibition halls have a "lighthouse project exhibition area" that is BMW large luxury car exhibition area, currently only authorized in a small number of areas.
In October, the average price of Audi brand new cars remained at around 293,000 yuan, down 6,000 from the previous month. The discount rebounded by 0.4%. The dealer inventory depth was around 1.5 in October.
In October, the retail sales of Audi A4L, A6L and Q5L remained at 13,000-14,000. A3 retailed 6,700. Q3 retailed 5,400. The sales of these two main cars needed to be further improved. Audi Q2L sales remained at 3,700. In October, Audi provided a fuzzy rebate incentive to promote sales.
In October, the average price of Cadillac brand new cars remained at around 300,000 yuan. The discount was close to 20%. The depth of dealer inventory in October was 2.1 with an increase of 0.4 from the previous month which indicated that OEM resumed the pressure on dealers. The showroom traffic decreased by 0.2%. Dealers need to pay attention to inventory risks.
In October, the average price of Lexus brand new cars was about 439,000 yuan, up by 9,000 yuan from the previous month. The dealer inventory was 0.4. The dealers had better profits and the inventory pressure was small.
Jaguar Land Rover：
In October, according to Jaguar Land Rover China official sales data, sales increased by 16.2% YoY, achieving double-digit growth for four consecutive months. In Q3, sales in China increased by 24.3%.
At the beginning of 2019, Jaguar Land Rover identified five key tasks, such as improving the profitability of dealers, strengthening brand building, enhancing product strength, transparent management, and open source, in response to the current situation in the Chinese market. Through three steps of “stabilizing the situation, restoring confidence, and gradually improving” strategy, it is beginning to see results.
In October, the average price of Volvo brand new cars remained at around 335,000 yuan. The discount was close to 25%. The discount fell by 0.8% from the previous month.
Inventory depth of dealers was 1.7 with a decrease of 0.6% from the previous month. Volvo has begun to clear dealer inventory to ensure that the pressure on dealer funds is eased.
In October, Porsche dealer retail sales were 6,900, up 4.4% YoY and 73,000 YTD, UP 21.8% YoY.
The inventory pressure model of Porsche dealers was Macan. In October, Macan sales grew by 133% to achieve a 28,600 total sales YTD with an increase of 34.6%.
In October, the retail sales of Lincoln was 3,500.
Lincoln increased its support for dealer rebates which provided support for dealers" new car sales profits. Lincoln"s compact SUV MKC sales fell 36% YTD. This product is also facing replacement of domestically produced. It is expected that sales would increase after domestically produced. After the launch of the new Aviator, it expands Lincoln"s market share in the medium and large SUV segment.
In October, the dealer retail sales of Infiniti was 3,500, down 13.2% YoY.
In October, Maserati dealers sold 390 units, down 54.5% YoY.
In October, the dealer retail sales of Acura was 1,580 with an increase of 62% YoY.
In October, Rolls-Royce sold 79 units.
In October, Bentley sold 160 units.
In October, Lamborghini sold 19 units.
In October, Aston Martin sold 30 units.
In October, Tesla sold 661 units.
In October, NIO sold 2,399 units.
copyright statement : This article is anoriginal article published by Sang Zhiwei for the first time. For reproduction or adapting, please communicate with the author. In case of any infringement, the infringer will bear the corresponding legal responsibilities. Nov. 21th, 2019, Beijing.
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